When to Buy
The calendar moves used-car prices. Here is the typical year.
Federal price-index data back to 2005 shows a seasonal shape: prices firm through spring and ease into autumn. Pick the month you plan to buy and see what that month has typically done — and how often it actually fell.
- Federal price index
- Every calendar month shown
- Shock years separable
Pick your buying month
A tendency across many observed years, not a promise about the next one. A well-bought car in a firm month beats a badly bought one in a soft month.
- January+0.02%fell 8 of 17
- February+0.16%fell 5 of 19
- March+0.79%fell 3 of 19
- April+0.51%fell 5 of 19
- May+0.62%fell 4 of 19
- June+0.44%fell 3 of 19
- July+0.58%fell 5 of 19
- August+0.28%fell 7 of 18
- September-1.41%fell 16 of 18
- October-1.07%fell 15 of 18
- November-0.98%fell 14 of 18
- December-0.22%fell 11 of 18
Derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics used-vehicles consumer price index — a national index, not a listing average. The typical-year view excludes 2020, 2021, 2022, when a supply shock overwhelmed seasonality; the all-years view keeps them. Both views agree on which end of the year is soft.
Before you buy
Check any VIN — free, instant, no sign-up
Decode the year, model, trim, plant and engine, then check NMVTIS for title brands and NHTSA for open recalls. The repair does not show on the paint. It shows in the record.
An index, not listings
The raw material is the BLS used-vehicles consumer price index — a national measure of what buyers actually paid, observed monthly for two decades. It describes the market, not any one car.
The shocks, separated
A supply shock can overwhelm seasonality — the record holds one that did. The typical-year view sets those years aside; the all-years view keeps them, and the two agree on which end of the year runs soft.
Timing is the small lever
The calendar moves prices by single percentage points; the specific car and the negotiation move them by more. Use the season as a tailwind, then check the car itself — its recalls, its title, its VIN.
